Canadian Housing Starts and Labour Force Survey - June 8, 2012

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Housing Starts and Labour Force Survey - June 8, 2012

The Canadian economy added just 7,700 jobs in May following two months of stellar job growth in March and April that saw the edition of 140,000 new jobs. The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 7.3 per cent. Employment in British Columbia was flat on the heels of 19,700 new jobs in April. Last month's sharp drop in the BC unemployment rate to 6.2 per cent proved to be a temporary blip. The unemployment rate bounced up 1.2 per cent to 7.4 per cent in May. BC employment is up 1.9  per cent compared to May 2011.

Looking at the new home construction market, Canadian housing starts were down from May's blockbuster pace of nearly 245,000 units, but still strong at a 211,400 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).   New home construction in BC urban centres jumped 21 per cent month over month, registering 26,600  starts (SAAR) in May.  On a year-over-year basis, BC housing starts were 9 per cent lower than May 2011.

New home construction in major metropolitan areas was generally weaker last month. Vancouver's previously robust multi-family starts trended lower in May, falling 18 per cent year-over-year while new construction of single-family homes was down one per cent. Total Vancouver starts were down 15 per cent from May 2011.  Abbotsford new home construction was up 7 per cent year-over-year in May due to a 19 per cent rise in single-family starts. Housing starts in Victoria were down by nearly half compared to May 2011, the result of a slower pace of multi-family starts last month. Finally, new home construction in Kelowna was roughly flat compared with May 2011, albeit down 4 per cent.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

Canadian Q1 GDP Growth and US Employment

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June 1, 2012
Canadian Q1 GDP Growth and US Employment

The Canadian economy grew at a 1.9 per cent rate in the first quarter of 2012, as growth in consumer spending slowed and business investment accelerated. Economic growth fell short of Bank of Canada expectations of 2.5 per cent though a pick up in second quarter growth may compensate for that shortfall. We are forecasting that the Canadian economy will expand at a 2.4 per cent rate this year.

Today's GDP release probably makes the Bank of Canada's case for a rate increase more difficult, particularly given ongoing developments in the Euro-zone. We expect the Bank to hold its overnight target rate at 1 per cent at its next interest rate meeting on June 5 while also walking back the hawkish tone from its April rate decision. 

The US labour market continued to tread water in Ma following a strong first quarter of employment growth. Today's US non-farm payrolls report showed just 69,000 new jobs were created in May, following a downward revision to April employment growth to just 77,000.  The US unemployment rate ticked 0.1 points higher to 8.2 per cent.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.

BC Commercial Leading Indicator Continues to Signal Strength in 2012

Vancouver, BC – May 31, 2012. 
For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click:  here.

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose for the third consecutive quarter, advancing 1.3 index points, or 1.2 per cent, to a revised index level of 111.91. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the CLI is now 3.2 per cent above its level in the first quarter 2011.

"The trend in the CLI has turned sharply upward, reflecting several months of strong underlying data,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist.  “This signals a potential acceleration commercial real estate activity in the subsequent two to four quarters."

This quarter’s increase in the CLI was driven by calmer global financial conditions to start 2012 as Euro-based fears cooled. The financial component of the CLI accounted for over one-third of CLI’s gain in the first quarter, with manufacturing output and employment growth also making a significant contribution.

“However, given the re-emergence of fears surrounding the Eurozone, last quarter’s gains may be only temporary,” added Ogmundson.

To view the full BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator index, click here.

Canadian Manufacturing Shipments/US Housing Starts - May 16, 2012

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Canadian Manufacturing Shipments/US Housing Starts - May 16, 2012

Canadian manufacturing sales increased 1.9 per cent in March, the largest advanced since September 2011. The gain was largely driven by higher sales of petroleum and coal products, though higher sales were reported in 13 of the 21 manufacturing sectors surveyed.

BC manufacturing sales rose 0.4 per cent on a month-over-month basis in March but were 0.4 per cent lower than in March 2011.  BC manufacturing sales were lead higher by a rebound in BC’s non-durables goods sector where sales rose 2.6 per cent due to strength in the petroleum and coal sector as well as higher sales in the paper and food manufacturing industries.

South of the border, US housing starts (a key bellwether for BC’s forest product industry) rose 2.6 per cent to 717,000 units in April, and 29 per cent over April 2011.

Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.