BC Commercial Leading Indicator Points to Strong Growth Ahead

BC Commercial Leading Indicator Points to Strong Growth Ahead
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Vancouver, BC – August 28, 2012. The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) continued to trend higher in the second quarter of 2012, rising 0.8 points to 112.6 from a revised level of 111.8 in the first quarter.  On a year-over-year basis, the CLI is now 3.7 per cent above its level in the second quarter of 2011.

"The trend in the CLI continues to signal strong growth in the BC commercial real estate market,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “The CLI’s trend has continued with a steep rise from early 2011, reflecting a pick-up in employment numbers as well as calmer financial market conditions."

This quarter’s increase in the CLI was driven entirely by the employment and financial components of the index while some economic activity measure, such as retail sales, have trended lower.

“As global economic fears quiet down and the BC economy continues to produce stronger job growth, we expect to see improvements in economic activity,” added Ogmundson.

To view the full BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator index, click here.

BC Commercial Lending Indicator Signals Strength in 2012

   
E-News for Commercial REALTORS® - 12/06/08 

 BC Commercial Leading Indicator Continues to Signal Strength in 2012

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose for the third consecutive quarter, advancing 1.3 index points, or 1.2 per cent, to a revised index level of 111.91. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the CLI is now 3.2 per cent above its level in the first quarter 2011.

"The trend in the CLI has turned sharply upward, reflecting several months of strong underlying data,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “This signals a potential acceleration commercial real estate activity in the subsequent two to four quarters."

This quarter’s increase in the CLI was driven by calmer global financial conditions to start 2012 as Euro-based fears cooled. The financial component of the CLI accounted for over one-third of CLI’s gain in the first quarter, with manufacturing output and employment growth also making a significant contribution.

“However, given the re-emergence of fears surrounding the Eurozone, last quarter’s gains may be only temporary,” added Ogmundson.

The full BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator index is available online. click here