CMHC Housing Market Outlook
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Vancouver Metropolitan Area:
- „„MLS sales and prices are forecast to remain flat in 2012 and 2013.
- MLS sales are projected to decline three per cent in 2012 and increase eight per cent in 2013.
- The average MLS® price is forecast to dip two per cent in 2012 before rising five per cent in 2013.
- Market conditions are expected to remain in balanced territory.
Greater Vancouver MLS resale Market Steady
MLS resale market conditions are forecast to be in balanced territory in most areas of the Greater Vancouver region in 2012 and 2013. During the past year, market conditions moderated from sellers’ market conditions for many municipalities in the first quarter of 2011 to balanced market conditions for most in the first quarter of 2012.While a few municipalities such as the Tri-Cities and North Vancouver have remained in sellers’ market conditions, others such as Burnaby,Vancouver City, and West Vancouver have moved to balanced market conditions in the first quarter of this year. Richmond moved from sellers’ market conditions in the first quarter of 2011 to buyers’ market conditions in first quarter of 2012.
Expectations are for a much smaller increase in the number of MLS sales and a steady level of new listings, which will contribute to a flatter trend for average MLS prices in the Greater Vancouver region during the remainder of 2012 and 2013. In terms of MLS sales, there has been a 22 per cent decline in the first quarter
of 2012 compared to a year ago.The decrease in MLS sales was recorded in all market segments – single- detached homes, row homes, and condominium apartments. Changes in market share suggests that home buyer activity for single-detached homes has shifted from Vancouver West, Richmond, and West Vancouver, to other areas including Vancouver East, North Vancouver, Burnaby, and Coquitlam.The geographical distribution of condominium apartment sales, however, has shown little change in the first quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago.As well, little geographical change was observed for townhouse sales.
In terms of price, there was a one per cent decrease in average
MLS price in first quarter of 2012
compared to the same period last
year. Price trends for both single-
detached homes and condominium
apartments have been fairly flat during
this period. Single-detached homes in
Greater Vancouver recorded slightly
stronger growth in average MLS®
prices than median MLS® prices, which
was largely a result of more very high-
end, luxury home sales (i.e. homes
that sold for at least $5 million) in the
first quarter of 2012 compared to the
same period a year ago.These sales
took place mainly in Vancouver West
and West Vancouver. For condominium
apartments, both average and median
MLS® prices follow a similar path – a
year-over-year decline of one per cent
in the first quarter of 2012.Areas such
as Vancouver West and Richmond experienced year-over-year declines
in average and median MLS® prices for
condominium apartments.
Stable home prices during the
forecast period are expected to
encourage some home purchases as
potential home buyers could see it as an opportunity to either trade up
from a current residence or enter
home ownership as a first time home
buyer.This will keep the number of MLS sales on par with last year,
with a 2.8 per cent dip expected in
2012 and a 7.8 per cent increase
projected for 2013. Still, the potential
for mortgage rate increases in 2013
may prompt some homebuyer caution
and keep overall market conditions in
balanced territory over the forecast
period in spite of a strong local job market and population growth.
Average MLS prices in the Greater
Vancouver region are projected to
decline 1.5 per cent in 2012 and then
to increase 4.6 per cent in 2013.
