Genworth Forecast: Mortgage Pulse? ... Flat Line!!!

The Market Pulse from Genworth

Last year’s mortgage regulations shrank the overall high-ratio mortgage insurance market by about 15%, according to recent estimates from GenworthCanada.

Those rule changes also eliminated high-ratio refinances and contributed to a 15% drop in housing sales last quarter versus Q1 2012.

Genworth CEO Brian Hurley spoke today on BNN about the pulse of the market. Here are some of his insights of note (our comments in italics): 

• As an insurer, "We make money by getting the risk right." That means "We've got to get the properties right," he told BNN.
  (If one is to read into this, and if history is a guide, we can expect more scrutiny on appraisals and property types as the market slows. This is especially true in richly valued markets like the Greater Toronto Area and Vancouver.)
• "Our two factors that drive our business performance are delinquencies, driven by unemployment (a very high correlation), and the size of our claims…(as) driven by home price declines."
  (As a result, Hurley hinted that Genworth is now focusing more on employment quality in its underwriting.)
• Genworth has been extra careful about insuring condos with a large investment component—typically those with small unit sizes.
• For the next few years "the mortgage market is going to be flat," he predicted. It will be "a couple of years until we see [the mortgage market] back to the 5-6% growth rate.”
• Genworth is seeing 24-25% average gross debt ratios (GDS) for first-time buyers
  (That may seem surprisingly low and well below the normal maximum of 32-39%. ButCAAMP found that the average GDS of an insured fixed-rate borrower was 22.5% in 2010—the latest marketwide GDS data we know of.)

More Here (Canadian Mortgage Trends)

Transition Year Expected for BC Housing Market

BCREA 2013 Second Quarter Housing Forecast Vancouver, BC – May 9, 2013. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2013 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today. BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to edge up 1.9 per cent to 68,900 units this year, before increasing a further 6.5 per cent to 73,400 units in 2014. The five-year average is 74,600 unit sales, while the ten-year average is 86,800 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005. "Stricter mortgage credit regulation combined with slower economic growth has kept BC home sales at a cyclical low over the past three quarters," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "However, a faster growing economy is expected during the second half of the year and through 2014 which will support a growth trend in provincial housing demand." "The BC average home price forecast is revised upward for 2013, from a decline of 1 per cent to remaining unchanged, as a result of stronger than expected market conditions in Vancouver," added Muir. The average MLS® residential price in BC is forecast at $515,800 this year, before rising 1.7 per cent to $524,500 in 2014. - 30 - To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast, click here.

... Axe The Property Purchase Tax!

News Release

Majority of British Columbians believe Property Transfer Tax needs adjustment

VANCOUVER, BC – May 1, 2013 – In a recent Ipsos Reid opinion poll, 58 per cent of respondents agreed that the Property Transfer Tax (PTT) places an unfair tax burden on home buyers relative to other segments of the population. Twenty nine per cent disagreed, and 13 per cent had no opinion on the issue. 

The poll also found that 51 per cent of respondents believe the provincial government should adjust the way the PTT is calculated to reflect price changes in the housing market over time. Of the 854 respondents, 26 per cent did not believe the PTT should be adjusted to reflect inflationary trends in the housing market and 23 per cent had no opinion.

Ipsos Reid conducted the poll on behalf of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV).  It was conducted online with 854 adult British Columbians responding between April 19 and 24, 2013.

“While the PTT is not top of mind in most people’s daily lives, when the time comes to purchase a home this tax becomes a significant burden for home buyers in BC to shoulder,” says Sandra Wyant, REBGV president.

The province introduced the tax 26 years ago. It was structured to add 1 per cent on the first $200,000 of the purchase price, and 2 per cent on the balance. The government of the day touted the PTT as a wealth tax, as just 5 per cent of homes in Greater Vancouver in 1987 sold for $200,000 or more. Today, the reverse holds true, with 96 per cent of homes in Greater Vancouver selling for more than $200,000. However, the tax’s structure hasn’t changed in nearly three decades.

“The PTT is structured to reflect home prices in the 1980s, not the prices home buyers pay today,” Wyant says. “The fact that it hasn’t been adjusted in 26 years is simply not fair to home buyers and the candidates in this year’s election should address this issue,” Wyant said. 

The REBGV has launched a campaign to increase voter awareness of the need for government to reduce the PTT. To support this campaign, people can “like” our Facebook page at facebook.com/helpreducetheptt.

The REBGV is asking candidates if they would support increasing the one per cent threshold to $525,000 from $200,000. This would mean that on a $600,000 home, the PTT would be $6,750, instead of $10,000, saving home buyers $3,250. 

The PTT generated $780 million for the provincial government in 2012. This money goes into general revenue to fund public services. It’s paid each time a property changes hands in the development process. When a developer buys raw land, the developer pays the PTT. When a builder buys lots from the developer, the builder pays the PTT. When a home buyer buys a home from the builder, the home buyer pays the PTT. Each time that home is sold, the buyer pays PTT.

To learn more about the PTT and its implications on BC home buyers, visit helpreducetheptt.ca.

Editor’s Note:

Ipsos is a global independent market research company. Click here to view the full survey results.

These are the findings of an online Ipsos Reid poll of 854 adult British Columbians conducted for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between April 19 and 24, 2013. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2011 Census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.8 percentage points had all British Columbia adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

- 30 -

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver is a non-partisan association representing 11,000 REALTORS® in Greater Vancouver. For more information about the REBGV visit www.rebgv.org.

Authorized by the British Columbia Real Estate Association, registered under the Election Act, 604.683.7702.

 

BCREA News Flash: It's a Buyer's Market!

 

No Smoking Please ... It Ruins My Investment Portfolio!

You Give Up That Disgusting Habit ... and ... w'ell get at least an extra 29% for our house!



Homeowners risk coughing up big bucks if they’re also smokers, according a survey of Ontario real estate agents and brokers.

The survey found that smoking in the home can reduce the value of the property on resale by up to 29 per cent.

Read more: 

National Real Estate Sales: ... Smallest Gain in 2 Years!

CREA 
Canadian home sales rise in March
Mon, 04/15/2013 - 09:00

Ottawa, ON, April 15, 2013 - According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales edged upward on a month-over-month basis in March 2013 but stayed well below levels recorded one year ago.

Highlights:

• National home sales rose 2.4% from February to March.
• Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity came in 15.3% below levels in March 2012.
• The number of newly listed homes was up 3.2% from February to March.
• The Canadian housing market remains firmly in balanced territory.
• The national average sale price rose 2.5% on a year-over-year basis in March.
• The MLS® HPI rose 2.2% in March, its smallest gain in more than two years.

Mortgage Broker News
Home sales were up slightly nationwide for the month of March, but remain well below levels recorded from a year ago, according to statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

More importantly, the Home Price Index for March rose only 2.2 per cent – its smallest gain in more than two years.

“National sales have been holding fairly stable since last summer,” says CREA President Laura Leyser. “We’ll be watching closely as the spring market picks up to see whether the March sales increase marks the beginning of an improving trend.”

Home sales rose 2.4 per cent from February to March of this year, but actual activity for March compared to the same month a year ago were 15.3 per cent below the 2012 levels.

New listings were up 3.2 per from February to March, with average sale prices up 2.5 per cent from compared to March 2012.

CREA attributes the sluggish March sales numbers to the Easter holiday and the loss bank days due to an extra full weekend at the end of the month – known as the “trading day effect.”

“Easter and trading day factors combined effectively to cut March sales short,” says Gregory Klump, CREA’s chief economist. “Activity in the months ahead will reveal whether the monthly improvement in seasonally adjusted March sales reflects technical seasonal adjustment factors or a fundamental improvement in demand.”

CBC News

Young Flaher - Stein

There's A Pulse ... It's ALIVE!!! ... It's ALIVE!!!!















The Mad Scientist Who Plays God 
... a Horrific Scene From "Young Flaher -(ty)-Stein"

BC Home Sales Tick Higher in March

Details Here

Vancouver, BC – April 15, 2013.  The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,661 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during March, up 6.6 per cent from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, but down 17.7 per cent compared to March 2012. Total sales dollar volume was down 18.5 per cent to $3.06 billion. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $540,662, up 2 per cent from February, but down 1 per cent from a year ago.

"BC home sales in March posted the largest seasonally adjusted month-to-month increase since January 2011,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, homes sale per capita continue to remain near a cyclical low, suggesting that pent-up demand may be beginning to grow in the housing market."

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume declined 22.1 per cent to $7.2 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales dipped 18.8 per cent to 13,572 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 4.0 per cent at $530,435.